Forget positions. Buy Goals

By Ewan, SPFL Fantasy Tips

What's the best way to build a successful Fantasy SPFL squad?

Every manager has their own theory. Some prioritise premium forwards. Others chase clean sheets. Some simply pick the biggest names and hope for the best. Rather than relying on opinion, I wanted to see what last season's numbers actually told us.

With no historical fantasy data publicly available, I analysed last season's player data to identify what separated the highest-scoring fantasy assets from everyone else. The results challenged some of my own assumptions. More importantly, they revealed one simple principle that could shape how we build our squads this season.

Forget positions. Buy goals.

This isn't Fantasy Premier League

One of the biggest differences between Fantasy SPFL and other fantasy games is the scoring system.

A defender goal is worth 15 points. A midfielder goal is worth 12 points. A forward goal is worth 10 points. A defender clean sheet? Just 4 points.

That immediately raises an interesting question. Should managers be spending heavily on defenders from the strongest defences, or is attacking output far more important than clean-sheet potential? To find out, I looked at last season's highest points-per-game performers.

The highest scorers all had one thing in common

Looking at the top performers from last season, one trend stands out almost immediately. Goals.

Last season's highest points-per-game (PPG) players still in this year's game

*Smaller sample size than the players around them.

At first glance, the table seems to support what many managers would expect. The majority of the game's best performers were midfielders and forwards. But look a little closer.

Three defenders sit comfortably amongst the elite fantasy assets.That shouldn't really happen if clean sheets are the primary source of defensive points. So what explains it?

The lesson isn't to buy attackers. It's to buy goal threat.

Take a look at the defenders who produced the highest points-per-game returns last season.

These weren't simply defenders playing behind strong defences. They were defenders producing outstanding attacking numbers.

Tavernier and Longelo each scored eight goals. Tierney added six goals and eight assists. Fernandez and Findlay both chipped in with five goals. That's why they were among the best fantasy defenders in the game. Not because they collected four-point clean sheets, but because they repeatedly delivered 15-point goals.

The clean sheets certainly helped, but the attacking returns were what elevated them into premium fantasy assets. It changes the way we should scout defenders.

Rather than asking, "Which team will keep the most clean sheets?" Perhaps we should be asking, "Which defenders have genuine goal threat?"

Case study: Nygren vs Longelo

Perhaps the most interesting comparison isn't between two players in the same position. It's between one of last season's premium forwards and one of its highest-scoring defenders.

The obvious response is that Nygren is simply the better player.

That's true. He scored twice as many goals and deservedly starts the new season as one of the premium fantasy assets. But fantasy football isn't about identifying the best player. It's about identifying where value exists.

Last season, Longelo produced almost identical points-per-game output while entering this season £5.5m cheaper.

That saving doesn't simply buy another player. It can completely transform the rest of your squad. It might upgrade a budget midfielder into a premium option. It might allow you to fit an extra captaincy candidate into your team. That's where leagues are won.

Of course, context matters. Can Motherwell replicate last season's performance levels? Will Longelo repeat those numbers? But that's not really the point. The point is that players with this profile can become season-defining fantasy assets.

Longelo isn't necessarily the player to copy. He's the profile to look for.

Looking for this season's Longelo

Historical data can't predict exactly who will score the most points this season. New signings arrive. Managers change. Teams improve and decline.

But what historical data can do is tell us which types of players consistently succeed. When assessing players this season, I'll certainly be looking at fixtures and team strength.

But I'll also be asking:

• Does this player have genuine goal threat?
• Does he regularly get into scoring positions?
• Does he take penalties or dangerous set pieces?
• Is he an attacking wing-back rather than a traditional full-back?
• Is he playing further forward than his fantasy position suggests?

Those are the characteristics shared by many of last season's biggest fantasy success stories. The names will change. The profile probably won't.

What this means for Gameweek 1

The biggest lesson from last season isn't that defenders are suddenly more valuable than forwards. Nor is it that clean sheets don't matter. It's that the highest fantasy scores were overwhelmingly driven by players capable of consistently producing attacking returns.

Most of those players were midfielders and forwards. The exceptions were defenders who attacked like midfielders.

As I build my own Gameweek 1 squad, that's the lens I'll be using. Not simply selecting players because of their position. Not automatically favouring defenders from the strongest defensive teams. Instead, I'll be looking for players with genuine goal threat, wherever they appear on the pitch. Because if last season's data teaches us anything, it's this:

Forget positions. Buy goals.